Nearly 60 percent of Taiwanese residents say China’s threats to Taiwan have increased over the past few years, according to a newly released survey.
The survey, conducted by Taiwan’s Academia Sinica, assesses Taiwanese residents’ views of the United States and their perceptions of China’s growing threat to regional peace and stability.
Lee Yu-tang, assistant research fellow at the Institute of European and American Studies at Academia Sinica, explained the survey’s themes at a panel discussion at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington think tank, on Thursday.
“The survey covered a wide range of topics, including U.S. credibility, the evolution of that credibility, the Chinese threat, and how Taiwanese respondents interpret signals from the United States and China,” Lee said.
Jude Blanchette, director of the China Program at the Washington think tank CSIS, moderated a video panel discussion. Blanchette noted that the timing of the survey is important.
“There is a growing recognition that Taiwan is very important to both the global supply chain and the overall defense of the Indo-Pacific region, especially to the United States,” Blanchette said.
The annual survey has 37 questions and 1,236 Taiwanese respondents. A key finding of this year’s survey is that Taiwanese residents have mixed views on the credibility of China and the United States.
The survey showed Taiwanese people’s trustworthiness of the United States increased by 7.2 percentage points to 41.2%, compared with 34% last year.
“Taiwanese people’s views on the credibility of the United States have increased significantly between 2023 and 2024,” said Li Yutang.
Pan Xinxin, associate professor of psychology at Soochow University in Taiwan, said the survey found that people’s confidence in China’s credibility has greatly decreased. “The vast majority of Taiwanese people believe that China is not trustworthy. This trend has been very consistent and stable over the past four years. Only about 10% of Taiwanese people believe that China is trustworthy,” Pan Xinxin said during a panel speech.
The word “credible” is defined as “keeping one’s word”. In other words, being consistent in what one says,” Pan added.
The survey asked respondents about four aspects of U.S. policy toward Taiwan, including presidential commitment, arms sales, naval and air patrols, and international engagement. Respondents were asked which of the four policies best signaled that the United States would send troops to defend Taiwan.
Of the four signals, 71.2% of Taiwanese residents believed that U.S. naval and air patrols would significantly increase or improve U.S. credibility, the highest percentage of the four signals surveyed. The scores for the other four were: presidential commitment, 60.3%; arms sales, 62.9%; and international engagement, 63.2%.
Currently, the United States is Taiwan’s most important international supporter and arms supplier, but the two countries do not have formal diplomatic relations. However, under the Taiwan Relations Act passed by the U.S. Congress in 1979, the United States is obligated to provide Taiwan with the weapons it needs for its defense.
Taiwan has been separated from mainland China since 1949. Beijing regards Taiwan as Chinese territory and has been exerting military pressure on democratically governed Taiwan to accept China’s sovereignty claims.
The survey showed that 80.6% of Taiwanese residents believe that Taiwan and China do not belong to the same country, and only 13.6% of respondents believe that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to the same country.
Another important question raised in the survey is about the ongoing US presidential election.
Pan Xinxin emphasized that this election will have an impact on the direction of US-Taiwan relations. Compared with the Biden administration, if Trump is re-elected as US president, Taiwan’s views on whether the United States will send troops to defend Taiwan will be very different.
Li Yutang said: “When it comes to the impact of a second Trump administration, people have different views on where the general trend of US support for Taiwan will develop.” He said: “But people do have opinions, and almost no one thinks that US policy will continue in the general direction of the Biden administration’s Taiwan policy.”
Trump told Bloomberg earlier this week that he was concerned about US military spending on Taiwan and Taiwan’s semiconductor chip industry.
Taiwan’s Premier Toyo Jung-tai responded on Wednesday that Taiwan should pay more for its defense and that Taiwan is willing to “take on more responsibility.”