Democratic candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate are increasingly concerned that voter concerns about President Joe Biden’s age will hurt their own campaigns, especially in states and individual districts where voters are deeply divided.
Efforts to persuade the 81-year-old incumbent to step aside have become increasingly public over the past three weeks since Biden’s poor performance in the first presidential debate. With polls showing Biden trailing former President Donald Trump in several states critical to an electoral victory, members of the Democratic Party have been voicing their concerns that Biden’s poor performance could derail their efforts to maintain control of the Senate and flip the House of Representatives.
Jon Tester of Montana, one of the few Democratic senators elected by voters in a long-leaning Republican state, is typical of Democrats who share that concern. Tester, who is seeking a fourth Senate term in a tight race against Republican nominee Tim Sheehy, said Thursday that he believes Biden should end his reelection bid.
“I have worked with President Biden to make Montana stronger, but I have never been afraid to stand up to him when he makes mistakes,” Tester said in a statement. “While I admire his commitment to public service and his country, I do not believe President Biden should seek reelection.”
If Biden gets the nomination, ‘I think we’re going to lose’
Rep. Adam Schiff, who is expected to win a U.S. Senate seat from California by a wide margin, became one of the most prominent Democrats to publicly express concerns this week, and many other Democrats expressed similar views to reporters anonymously.
“If he’s our nominee, I think we’re going to lose,” Schiff said privately at a fundraiser last weekend, according to a transcript obtained by The New York Times. “We’re going to lose the Senate in all likelihood and lose our chance to take back the House.”
In a statement to the Los Angeles Times on Wednesday, Schiff praised Biden’s accomplishments but added: “A second Trump presidency would undermine the foundations of our democracy, and I have deep concerns about the President’s ability to defeat Donald Trump in November.
Unanimous voting and turnout
Drew McCoy, president of Decision Desk HQ, a U.S. election data provider, told VOA there are two related factors leading to concerns that Biden’s performance could affect other Democratic candidates.
First, voters who choose Republican candidates at the top of the ballot may be inclined to continue voting for Republican candidates in races further down the ballot.
“There’s a high correlation between how people vote in presidential elections and in elections at the lower end of the ballot,” McCoy said, adding that fewer and fewer Americans are “split-vote” voters, choosing members of different political parties for different offices.
“Until 20 or 25 years ago, that was pretty common. Now it’s pretty rare … so if (Biden) loses, the people behind him will think they’re going to lose, too.”
Second, turnout is likely to decline as Democratic voters are clearly unenthusiastic about Biden’s candidacy. McCoy said that in the coming period, “voters will decide who to vote for and whether to vote at all.”
Many Democratic House and Senate candidates are currently outperforming President Biden in the polls, but in a presidential election year, the candidates at the top of the ticket have the greatest impact on turnout. With Republican enthusiasm high and Democratic morale low, even Democrats currently ahead of the president in the polls could struggle in November.
McCoy said polling data shows many Democrats support candidates at the lower end of the ticket but said they can’t support Biden.
“Will those voters show up to vote? That’s the question,” McCoy said. “An 8- to 10-point lead is great, but those are people who may not actually vote because they have questions about the candidates at the top of the ticket.”
Biden’s approval rating drops
While President Biden and his closest advisers continue to insist that he will remain in the race and that he has the best chance of defeating Trump in November, polling data for months has been questioning that assertion.
Trump has maintained a small but consistent lead over Biden nationally in nearly every poll, with the gap widening since the June 27 debate.
What’s more, Biden appears to be trailing Trump in seven so-called “swing states” — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. An Emerson College poll released Thursday showed Biden trailing Trump by at least 3 percentage points in all seven states, and by 10 points in Arizona.
The poll also showed that most voters, including the vast majority of Democratic voters, believe Biden is too old to run for a second term.
Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics wrote in an analysis published Thursday that if Biden continues to run but fails to make significant progress, “it is impossible for Democrats to win a majority in either the House or the Senate.”
Control of Congress is in question
That’s because the balance of power on Capitol Hill is precarious.
In the Senate, Democrats and the independents who caucus with them control 51 seats, while Republicans control 49. However, because senators serve staggered terms, only 34 seats are up for election in 2024, 20 of which are currently held by Democrats.
In the House of Representatives, Republicans hold a slim 220-213 advantage, but most analysts expect control of the chamber in the next Congress to come down to 18 individual, torn races.
The Democrats’ nightmare scenario is that former President Donald Trump wins handily in November, with most Republican House and Senate candidates riding his momentum and allowing the GOP to dominate Washington for the next two years.