WASHINGTON — The Republican National Convention closed on Thursday night. Trump and his deputy Vance are believed to regard China as a greater threat to the United States and support strengthening tariffs on China. They are expected to take more severe measures against China. During the convention, in an interview with Trump by the American media Bloomberg Businessweek, Trump said that Taiwan should pay for its defense. Yu Maochun, director of the China Center of the Hudson Institute, told VOA that Trump focuses on deterrence in dealing with China, so that the Chinese Communist Party will give up the idea of invading Taiwan by force. No matter who is elected as the US president, the US’s bottom line on defending Taiwan will not change. As soon as the report of
Bloomberg Businessweek that Trump said Taiwan should pay for its defense came out, various voices appeared in Taiwan’s public opinion.
Chen Fangyu, assistant professor of the Department of Political Science at Soochow University, told VOA that some people have raised “doubts about the United States”, believing that the United States is not sincere about Taiwan and wants to make money from Taiwan; there are also a large number of Trump supporters in Taiwan who applaud and believe that it is natural to pay to talk business; there is also a group of people who are more conservative and believe that it is not appropriate to make a conclusion before the election is decided, and everything is still uncertain.
Chen Fangyu said that he belongs to the third category. He believes that Trump is only a candidate after all, and there is no need to agree with or oppose his views. Such views are not necessarily good for Taiwan. “I think it is inappropriate to regard Taiwan’s security and the security of the Indo-Pacific region as a bargaining chip that can be used for negotiation or even payment. From the perspective of the role of the leader of American democratic politics, this is not a good thing. But of course, because Trump’s style is like this, we are no longer surprised,” he said.
Is asking for payment just Trump’s usual style?
Yu Maochun, former China policy adviser to the Trump administration and director of the Hudson Institute’s China Center, told VOA that Trump’s remarks about Taiwan paying are consistent with what he said to other allies, including Japan, South Korea, and NATO. “He is not wrong in principle, because Taiwan’s defense is indeed a common defense, so it is not necessarily strange for Taiwan to spend money on defense. Because the relationship between the United States and Taiwan, in terms of defense, is mainly through Taiwan buying a large number of very necessary weapons from the United States, which is actually mutually beneficial.”
Yu Maochun analyzed that stationing troops is very expensive, and the United States has no troops stationed in Taiwan, so Trump’s remarks about Taiwan may not necessarily reflect the actual situation. He pointed out that the United States has about 60,000 troops stationed in Japan and nearly 23,000 troops stationed in South Korea. The shared burden that these countries have to pay is more important in terms of financial expenditure.
Yu Maochun emphasized that Trump’s defense of Taiwan is “undoubtedly.” “His top priority for Taiwan’s defense is deterrence, to prevent the CCP and make the CCP have no belief in using force against Taiwan.” He said that Trump actually did a very good job in deterrence, not only against China, but also against North Korea, the Islamic State (ISIS) in Syria, and Russia’s aggressive ambitions in Europe. Trump’s deterrence is “100% successful.”
Therefore, Yu Maochun believes that under Trump’s administration, “there is no question of whether the United States will send troops after the CCP invades Taiwan, because if Trump is president, the possibility of the CCP sending troops is very small.” On the other hand, the United States’ commitment to Taiwan’s national defense is guaranteed by the Taiwan Relations Act and is a national consensus. From the perspective of the overall situation, Taiwan does not need to panic. Chen Fangyu
believes that Trump has always been quite consistent in his attitude and faces all allies with a business attitude. He believes that Trump’s remarks show that he actually does not think that the United States needs to defend Taiwan, nor does he think that the United States needs to play the role of a defender of the democratic system. This is in stark contrast to President Biden’s five public statements of the United States’ commitment to assist in the defense of Taiwan.
Chen Fangyu pointed out that the Trump administration appointed many officials such as Mike Pompeo and Matthew Pottinger who were harsh on China and friendly to Taiwan, which reversed the public opinion in the United States and the two parties reached a consensus on China policy. “The Biden administration has continued this matter. The biggest difference between Biden and Trump is that Biden will use multilateral mechanisms, that is, to bring allies together. Trump doesn’t care much about multilateral mechanisms, and he just talks one-on-one. So in terms of means, it is the difference between multilateral and bilateral,” he said. “The United States has not officially announced that it will give up strategic ambiguity, but the Biden administration is indeed becoming clearer and clearer on this issue. There is more and more cooperation between the United States and Taiwan, and it is open military cooperation. The relationship between the United States and Taiwan is indeed moving forward.”
Trump responded to the question of whether he would defend Taiwan against Chinese attacks and made the answer that Taiwan should pay. He also said that Taiwan has taken away the chip business of the United States. “The United States is no different from an insurance company. Taiwan has not given us anything,” and said that it is practically difficult to defend a small island on the other side of the earth.
David Sacks, a fellow at the Asia Program at the Council of Foreign Affairs, told VOA that Trump’s remarks show he is unsure whether he should defend Taiwan. He believes it is quite difficult or even impossible for the United States to do so, and his deputy Vance has not promised to defend Taiwan. In addition, Trump’s view on foreign policy is mainly from an economic perspective. He said: “When he thinks about Taiwan, he mainly thinks about chips and possibly U.S.-Taiwan trade. And he is not so concerned, and to be honest, he may not pay attention at all to the geopolitical significance of Taiwan, or what consequences will it have on U.S. foreign policy if Taiwan is not protected. So he mainly looks at this issue from an economic perspective rather than a broader geopolitical perspective. This also reflects his transactionalism, that if you want something from the United States, you should pay a price and should pay more, rather than looking at the long-term interests of the United States from a broader perspective.”
Will the combination of Trump and Vance be more threatening to China?
Yu Maochun believes that Trump’s choice of Vance as his deputy is a very good choice, and Vance is completely consistent with Trump in terms of ideas. “He fully agrees that the biggest challenge and threat to the United States is the Chinese Communist Party. In addition, Vance is absolutely determined to defend Taiwan, and he believes that the Chinese Communist Party must not be allowed to invade Taiwan. This highlights an important characteristic of his. He wants to focus the strategic focus of the United States on the Chinese Communist Party and not let the Ukrainian war or some unrest in the Middle East affect the United States’ attention,” he said.
Rather than relying on Washington to reduce tensions in the Taiwan Strait, Chen Fangyu believes that Taiwan should think more about how to strengthen its deterrence capabilities. “Because no matter what we do, no matter what the United States does, no matter what the world does, we have no way to change China’s agenda to unify Taiwan, so our best way is to strengthen self-defense to deter China’s aggressive ambitions.”
Chen Fangyu believes that Taiwan can only truly deter China by increasing the cost of using force and letting the Chinese Communist Party know that Taiwan has the determination and ability to do so. In this regard, Taiwan and the United States also need to cooperate more. Taiwan must continue to convince the United States that defending Taiwan will definitely help the interests of the United States. In addition to Taiwan strengthening its own capabilities, the United States can also further help Taiwan in many ways, such as assisting Taiwan in joining international organizations in diplomatic relations and enhancing military cooperation.
Shi Kewei pointed out that Vance, like Trump, has always been quite critical of China. He advocated that the United States reduce military aid to Ukraine in order to invest more military resources in the Indo-Pacific region to curb China’s aggression. Vance also blamed China for the deindustrialization of the United States. A major core of his political ideology is that the United States should re-industrialize, which means that fewer goods will be imported from China. Trump also mentioned that if he comes to power, he will impose high tariffs on Chinese goods. But where their views differ slightly is that “for Trump, a lot of this is negotiable.”
Former US President Trump officially accepted the Republican presidential nomination on July 18. Trump mentioned China several times in his acceptance speech and once again called the new coronavirus the “Chinese virus.” He also said that Hungarian Prime Minister Orban recently told the media that the solution to the current global war problem is to let Trump return to power because “Russia is afraid of him, China is afraid of him, and everyone is afraid of him.”
“So I think at the beginning of Trump’s second term, he may impose tariffs on China and tighten export controls,” Shi said. “But for him, I think this is trying to create the maximum bargaining chip for trade negotiations with China, and he is willing to withdraw most of the measures if China meets his demands. So I think Trump’s views on China are not necessarily very ideological, and I’m not sure how much he believes that China poses a huge threat to the United States.”
Jay Chen, national co-chairman of the Taiwanese American for Progress, will attend the Democratic National Convention as a party delegate next month. He told VOA that if Trump is elected, he will withdraw U.S. support for Ukraine and withdraw from NATO, which will make the United States more isolated. He may also make additional demands on allies in exchange for U.S. support, and Taiwan’s prospects are not optimistic. “One thing we have to do is to ensure that Taiwan has the means to defend itself, which is part of the Taiwan Relations Act. I am worried that if Trump is re-elected, he will try to dismantle some of the contents of it. Trump and Vance’s position is very isolated.”
Chen believes that the United States needs to show that it will support Taiwan and democratic allies in the Indo-Pacific region and oppose any behavior by China to bully any U.S. allies. China can and should become a stable partner in the region, which will be welcomed by the whole world.
Yu Maochun believes that although Trump and Biden have different focuses on Taiwan policy, in general, no matter who is elected as the US president, the fundamental bottom line of defending Taiwan will not change. In addition to the guarantee of the Taiwan Relations Act, basically no one in the American people and Congress will oppose the use of armed forces to prevent the CCP from invading Taiwan.
“And now the CCP has a very bad reputation in the United States. More than 80% of Americans think that the CCP is not a very good country and we don’t have a good impression of it. So in this case, it’s not that we share the same hatred of the enemy, but I think there is almost no possibility of changing the current policy and giving up the protection of Taiwan,” he said.
Chen Jiefei said that Biden, who has repeatedly expressed his support for Taiwan, is more conducive to defending Taiwan, while Trump does not really value the US allies, which can be seen from his attitude towards Ukraine and ending military exercises with South Korea.
“China has become increasingly aggressive not only toward Taiwan, but also toward the entire South China Sea,” Chen Jiefei said. “I think we must support our allies, support Taiwan, support allies like the Philippines, and maintain freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and strategic trade routes. President Biden has been doing this.” Yu Maochun said that although Biden has stated five times in public that if the CCP invades Taiwan, the US military will definitely take military action to prevent the CCP from invading Taiwan, Biden also emphasized that there is cooperation and competition. “As long as you talk about cooperation with China, it will think you are a weakness, so it keeps provoking,” he said. “In contrast, Trump’s way of dealing with China is to put deterrence at the top of the agenda, and to fundamentally force the CCP to dispel the idea of launching an armed invasion. He is the most successful president in this regard.”
“I think deterrence is very important in dealing with the CCP, and deterrence must be credible, that is, you do what you say. Doing what you say is President Trump’s biggest characteristic of governing, and this should not be underestimated. President Biden is far from enough in terms of deterrence, so the CCP still takes advantage of the situation, constantly creating some small troubles, and then exacerbating the tension,” said Yu Maochun.